Today will provide one thing for each meteorological style, aside from sunny and heat.
The entrance web page of the National Weather Service’s net web page is lit up with nearly each conceivable meteorological warning and advisory (see beneath). High wind warnings, storm warnings, winter climate advisory, excessive surf advisory, flood warnings, and extra.
And the most recent water vapor satellite tv for pc picture reveals a really spectacular plume of moisture poised to maneuver into our area. I imply THOUSANDS of miles lengthy.
During the 36-h ending four AM Sunday, fashions are predicting as much as 5 inches of liquid water equal within the mountains.
And by four PM Monday 5-10 inches of water will probably be widespread.
Considering that we’re beginning with rivers working fairly excessive (see determine beneath), some flooding is inevitable. The blue dots point out river measuring websites the place the stream is ALREADY a lot above regular.
For instance, the Tolt River, draining off the central WA Cascades, is predicted to surge to reasonable flood stage.
But for me, the massive pleasure is a really intense chilly entrance that may method our shores later this afternoon. This winter we now have had a number of of them, together with the one which introduced the snow a number of weeks in the past. The thrilling factor for me is that our fashions have been able to realistically simulating and forecasting these amazingly intense options.
To illustrate, right here is the tremendous high-resolution forecast by the UW mannequin for 7 PM tonight, displaying floor wind gusts (coloration shading) and floor winds (the wind barbs) alongside the WA coast. Look carefully and you will note a unprecedented sharp and dramatic wind shift from southwesterly (from the SW) to northwesterly winds. THAT is the entrance.
This sharp wind shift is related to large convergence of air on the floor, forcing intense upward movement and heavy rain, one thing that the mannequin is simulating (see the simulated radar picture beneath for a similar time).
You see the undulating orange line on the coast? THAT is the extreme rainfall related to a powerful slim chilly frontal rainband, stretches northeastward to north of Everett.
Trust me. You do NOT wish to be exterior when that hits.
And let’s not neglect about wind. A powerful strain gradient (wind distinction over distance) will precede and accompany the entrance, and lots of of you’ll expertise winds gusting to 40-50 mph. The newest NOAA HRRR mannequin forecast of floor gusts at 11 AM this morning reveals gusts as excessive as 50-60 mphalong the coast and over NW Washington, with lesser, however nonetheless sturdy, winds over Puget Sound.Now let me present you a high-tech wind product we make obtainable to Seattle City Light from the Seattle WindWatch web site. (They use the skillful wind forecasts to cope with energy outages). This steerage reveals the high-resolution forecasts, the ensemble of many (barely decrease decision) prediction, and new steerage making use of machine studying for max wind gust over Seattle. Time is on the x-axis and predicted gust is the y-axis.
The winds will enhance through the day and hit a peak through the late afternoon and early night, plummeting after the entrance strikes by way of. Quite a little bit of uncertainty, with the best winds round 50 mph. Machine studying is knocking the winds all the way down to 30-40 mph, whereas the high-resolution fashions going 40-50 mph.The utility of machine studying is a brand new know-how for climate mannequin calibration and we now have so much to “be taught” about making use of this method. With saturated soils, I count on there will probably be scattered energy outages. In the longer term, maybe, we are going to use machine studying to instantly predict the ability outages based mostly on previous and forecast circumstances.
Enjoy the lively climate.