Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington State

Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington State

Portions of Washington State, notably from the Cascade crest eastward, might even see some very sturdy thunderstorms beginning tomorrow morning and increasing into the night.    Storms that will deliver heavy rain, hail, a lot of lightning, very sturdy winds and even the possibility of a tornado-packing supercell thunderstorm.

And western Washington might get some heavy rain and maybe some thunder. 

The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has an uncommon extreme storm outlook for Saturday, with the best menace in central Washington and Oregon. You do not see that fairly often!

Key elements shall be in place on Saturday in our area: very unstable air and an approaching higher stage disturbance that can present upward movement that can provoke the convection (thunderstorms). 

To put it one other method: we can have each the gasoline (unstable air) and the match (the approaching disturbance).   And we may even have sturdy wind shear (wind change with top), which is vital aspect for long-lived extreme thunderstorms.

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Tomorrow morning, the existence of a trough offshore and better strain inland, will produce a southerly (from the south) circulation of heat,  moist air over the area (an higher stage map for round 18,000 ft is proven beneath).  This will foster the event of instability AND sturdy wind shear–both vital elements.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington State
And to the south an intense higher low is lurking over California.  That characteristic…the match— will transfer northward throughout the day and can provoke sturdy thunderstorms.    But there may be extra, this higher low can have a really sturdy low strain middle related to it, and by eight PM Saturday, the floor low shall be positioned over jap Washington (see beneath). Wow…there’s a HUGE strain gradient over central WA right now….that can end in sturdy winds.

1590795970 672 Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington State
This evolution goes to supply terribly uncommon ranges of instability within the environment….the potential for the environment to convect.  A measure of the potential for instability is know as CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy).   Values tomorrow shall be very excessive over jap Washington, with some values getting about 2500 (that could be very, very excessive for our area)….see forecast for tomorrow at four PM.

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1590795971 950 Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington State
The UW high-resolution forecast mannequin is predicting substantial precipitation over the area by way of 5 AM Sunday (see beneath), with a lot of western WA being drenched by .5-1.2 inches of rain.

1590795972 40 Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington State
And the UW mannequin is predicting sturdy thunderstorms, one thing proof in among the cloud simulations proven beneath for six AM and 6 PM Saturday.  The white ovals are sturdy thunderstorms.  Huge.
1590795973 306 Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington State
1590795974 524 Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington StateThe NOAA/NWS HRRR mannequin forecast for 7 PM Saturday predicts some supercell thunderstorms with threatening hooked echos the Columbia Basin (simulated radar composite radar reflectivity is proven).

1590795975 154 Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Washington State
And I have not even mentioned the simulated winds, which gust to 60 mph close to among the forecast thunderstorms!  There shall be blowing mud and potential fallen bushes.

It ought to be an fascinating day.


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