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The Smoke Forecast and Its Extreme Variations

The Smoke Forecast and Its Extreme Variations

Note:  my new podcast on the smoke state of affairs is up (info on the backside)
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What a distinction just a few days make.  Here is the view of Seattle from the SpaceNeedle PanoCam at 8:30 AM this morning.  Apocalyptic.
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Yesterday was a bit hazy, however much better:

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And 4 days in the past (September seventh) you possibly can see Mt. Rainier.

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Portland this morning is really scary:

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A visual satellite tv for pc picture for 9:46AM  tells the story. Shallow smoke over Puget Sound and Northwest Washington and DENSE smoke over SW Washington and Oregon.  Interestingly, lots of the excessive elevations are smoke free.  I’ll inform you why in a second.

The Smoke Forecast and Its Extreme Variations
Air high quality went dangerous in a single day, the EPA AirNow websites at 10 AM reveals unhealthy ranges throughout Puget Sound (crimson), VERY UNHEALTHY (purple) ranges in the direction of the coast, and HAZARDOUS (purple) ranges within the Portland space.

1599850196 110 The Smoke Forecast and Its Extreme Variations
Interestingly, at many places in Washington you will get above the smoke (above round 4000 ft), as illustrated by the picture from the Crystal Mountain cam close to Mt. Rainier (see beneath).  You can see the low-level smoke layer!

Read More:  Amazing Noctilucent Clouds

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Why is the air clear at elevation? 

Because there’s a sturdy inversion (temperature growing with peak) beneath roughly 4000 ft and inversions act the like boundaries that forestalls the smoke kind mixing vertically.   To illustrate, right here is the temperature/dew level sounding at 5 AM this morning on the WA coast (Forks).  Red is temperature and peak is in stress (700 is roughly 10,000 ft, 850 roughly 5000 ft). 

Mama Mia!  That is a powerful inversion.  There is a shallow marine layer (1000-950) with a 12C warming above.

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So what’s going to occur?  The latest HRRR smoke forecast for two PM this afternoon reveals poor circumstances over Portland and into Puget Sound (purple colours) and unhealthy situation (crimson) over the remainder.  I’m not going operating right this moment!

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Not significantly better at 11 PM tonight, besides maybe on the Washington coast.  But getting MUCH worse east of the Cascade crest as growing westerly winds push the smoke to the east.

Read More:  A Wet British Columbia is Good for Washington State

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Skipping forward to Sunday morning at three AM, there’s vital enchancment alongside your complete coast, modest enchancment over Seattle and Portland (though nonetheless smoky) and MUCH, MUCH worse over japanese WA and Oregon.   I hope the grapes are harvested.   Conditions in Spokane and the Tri-Cities is not going to be nice.

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My weblog on the KNKX firing and cancel tradition is discovered right here.

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